Is Apple Stock Still a Buy? A Backtesting Review for Value and Position Traders

I ran a backtest on Apple’s share price some time ago using a custom-built share trading scenario planner. My aim was simple: see if any sell signals were triggered under different trading conditions.

Unsurprisingly, there weren’t any.

Apple Stock: Fundamentally Strong, Technically Weak?

The backtesting model I used is designed to test stock price trends over time against both technical and fundamental indicators. In Apple’s case, the model flagged no sell signals. Instead, it confirmed that Apple remains fundamentally strong, though it could be considered technically weak at certain points.

For a position trader, that’s usually a buy signal — especially if the fundamentals outweigh temporary technical weaknesses.

Fundamentals vs Technicals: What Matters More?

The real question is whether you believe Apple is a solid long-term investment. If you do, the model’s output supports a strong buy from a value investing standpoint. This is where style matters — traders who focus on fundamentals may see opportunity where technical traders might hesitate.

I believe good traders should understand both approaches: fundamentals help assess the intrinsic value of a company, while technical indicators guide timing and entry/exit decisions.

Apple’s European Tax Risks: A Note of Caution

One caveat worth considering: Apple's international tax strategy. As long as Apple operates its European HQ from Ireland, its fiscal health — and by extension, investor confidence — remains subject to the decisions of European regulators.

Ireland, understandably, benefits enormously from Apple's presence. But there's always a risk. What happens if Apple decides to relocate to a more favourable tax environment — say, post-Brexit Britain or another jurisdiction?

That kind of geopolitical and regulatory risk shouldn't be ignored when making long-term investment decisions.

Conclusion: Is Apple a Buy?

Based on this backtest and my analysis, Apple remains a long-term buy. It’s fundamentally strong, has resilient business performance, and continues to offer growth potential. Technical indicators may create noise, but they shouldn’t distract value investors or position traders from what is still one of the world’s most powerful companies.